0800hrs UK EU Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks at an ECB event in Frankfurt
0830hrs UK EU Bank of Portugal Governor Carlos Costa speaks in Lisbon
0900hrs UK EU EuroZone Current Account balance (previous €22.7bln)
0900hrs UK EU EuroZone Trade Balance (est €21.1bln vs previous €21.0bln)
0920hrs UK EU Bundesbank Board Member Claudia Buch speaks in Paris
1330hrs UK CA Canadian Retail Sales (est 0.33%mom vs previous 0.4%)
1330hrs UK CA Canadian CPI (est 0.31%mom / 2.25%yoy vs previous 0.3% / 2.3%)
1415hrs UK US Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks in Dallas
1415hrs UK US Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard speaks in New York
Earnings releases from US include Campbell’s Soup and Deere & Co
In the UK, Astra Zeneca report Q1 18 numbers
STOCKS: Wall Street ended a choppy session lower yesterday as investors grappled with escalating trade tensions and rising oil prices. All this following on after the UK benchmark FTSE100 ended the day at a record closing level and around 5 points shy of it’s all time high. Comments by President Donald Trump that China “has become very spoiled on trade” cast doubts over the efforts to avoid a tariff war between the globe’s two largest economies as they embark on the second round of high level negotiations. Unrest in the Middle East sent oil prices higher brought supply fears to oil markets and saw prices up to 3 ½ year highs, with some chatter that $100 a barrel could be in sight. Not surprisingly, the S&P Energy sector posted the largest gains of the S&P Sectors, rising 1.3%. The small cap Russell 2000 posted a record high for the second day running, while the S&P500 finished the day -2.33 points at 2720.13, the Dow ended down 54.95 at 24713.98, both well shy of all time highs, whilst the Nasdaq100 closed down 28.333 at 6901.632
Asia-Pacific Stocks have put in a mixed performance in the session so far, and over the week as a whole. The Nikkei is up just under 100 points after a jumpy session, helping to keep the weekly performance positive (+0.60%). Energy stocks are leading the gains. The Hang Seng has had a post lunchtime boost to push on – currently trading 165 points higher and approaching the end of the week almost unchanged from last Friday. Energy stock are once again leading the way, helping to keep the index in positive territory on the day. Australia’s ASX 200 had a positive start to the day before giving back gains to close in the red leaving the index down nearly 0.5% on the week.
US TSYS SUMMARY: The US 10-year note future traded with a downside bias through much of the overnight session so far. US 10-year yields continued their push higher breaching the important 3.12% level again to make new cyclical highs of 3.1261, trigger a renewed steepening of the curve (2s-10s), back to mid-March Levels).
OIL: Global oil benchmark for Brent surpassed the $80 /barrel level yesterday, the highest since November 2014 as Total and Maersk abandoned their Iranian operations and OPEC & Russia show no intentions of filling the supply gap. Prices have held overnight, with Brent currently $79.50 and West Texas $71.61
GOLD: The yellow metal is poised for it’s biggest weekly drop since December on a stronger greenback and rising treasury yields, curbing the interest for the non-interest bearing precious metals. Gold futures currently trading down 30c at $1289.1 after closing at $1320.7 last Friday.
FOREX: USD is perched near a 5 month high after the benchmark 10yr treasury yield hit it’s highest level in 7 years at 3.128%. The EUR managed to trade above 118.00 although still not far off it’s 5 month low of 117.63 having come under pressure this week from the Italian political situation and the strengthening greenback. The USD/JPY extended the rally overnight trading to 111.005, it’s highest level since late January. Emerging market currencies have also lost ground to the all round strength of the dollar.