0900hrs UK EU The ECB Publishes Their Economic Bulletin
0930hrs UK UK Visible Trade Balance (est £11.2bln vs previous £10.2bln)
0930hrs UK UK Industrial Production (est 0.16%mom/3.06%yoy vs previous 0.1% / 2.2%)
0930hrs UK UK Manufacturing Production (est -0.05%mom/2.93%yoy vs previous -0.2% / 2.5%)
1200hrs UK UK Bank of England Base Rate Decision (est 0.5% vs previous 0.5%)
1200hrs UK UK Bank of England Releases their Inflation Report (est downward revision to 2018 GDP)
1230hrs UK UK Bank of England Governor Mark Carney holds a press conference in London
1330hrs UK US Initial Jobless Claims (est 217.9K vs previous 211K)
1330hrs UK US Consumer Price Index (est 0.28%mom/2.49%yoy vs previous -0.1% / 2.4%)
1900hrs UK US US Treasury Monthly Budget Statement (est $201.45bln vs previous $208.7bln)
US earnings releases today include Ultra Petroleum, Qurate Retail (QVC), Globalstar, Worldpay, Uniti, Symantec, Dropbox and NVIDIA
UK FTSE100 sees 22.788 points ex-dividend today
The Day So Far….
STOCKS: Wall Street surged yesterday as rising oil prices boosted energy stocks following President Trump’s decision to quit the nuclear agreement with Iran. Gains were broad based and on good volume as investors who had been waiting in the wings pending Trump’s announcement returned to the market. All sectors advanced with the exception of utilities and telecoms. The S&P energy index jumped over 2% to show a gain of 12.6% this quarter, the highest of all the sectors. The Dow closed up 182.33 at 24542.54, just off the highs whilst the S&P500 followed the same pattern, closing 25.87 higher at 2697.79 after a high print above 2700. The Nasdaq100 finished the day strongly, within a whisker of the daily high at 6893.214, 77.732 points to the good.
Asia-Pacific indices moved higher on Thursday, following on from Wall St.'s positive lead. Japan's Nikkei 225 quickly added over 0.5% with the energy sector leading the way higher after Wednesday's surge in energy prices. The telecoms sector was the notable laggard. The early gains were steadily eroded over the morning session, but trading picked up again as the afternoon moved on. The Hang Seng added over 1% in a buoyant morning session and has largely held on to those gains as they approach the close. Once again the energy sector led the charge as telecoms lagged, although mainland shares underperformed with the CSI 300 adding 0.5% at the open, to slide in to negative territory mid afternoon before a recent push back into the green as they approach the close. The ASX 200 added 0.2%, once again the energy sector led the way, while telecoms & IT lagged. US index futures also edged higher as the e-mini S&P added 5 points and the mini-Dow added nearly 50 points.
US TSYS: T-Notes have edged higher, as Iran-Israeli tensions simmer, with reports of missiles being fired between Israel & Iranian assets in Syria supporting the space, which has allowed the curve to flatten, as 10-Year yields trade back below 3.00%. - The latest 10-Year note auction passed smoothly with a steady bid to cover ratio, minor tail & smaller takedown as indirect participation edged higher.
OIL: The major crude benchmarks continued their advance as Iran-Israeli tensions simmered, with reports of missiles being fired between Israel & Iranian assets in Syria. WTI & Brent added $0.60 each to trade at $71.75 & $77.75. The increase the aforementioned tensions comes after US President Trump walked away from the Iranian nuclear accord, which had already boosted crude prices.
GOLD: Gold added $2 to trade at $1315/oz, although its reaction to an increase in the Iran-Israel tensions was limited.
FOREX: The NZD was the underperformer as RBNZ Gov. Orr began the his first MonPol statement by noting that the outlook for MonPol is for the OCR to remain at 1.75% for "some time to come" along with equally balanced risks re: a move up or down, but ended by stating the OCR will remain at this level for a "considerable period." The RBNZ trimmed its CPI exp., and now looks for CPI to hit 2.0% in Q420; prev. Q320. The Bank's OCR projections now look for a hike in Q319; prev Q219. The path for exchange rate was slightly lowered. NZDUSD hit fresh YtD lows and trades at ~0.6915 last, while AUDNZD broke above its 100-DMA. - Elsewhere the USD backed off as US 10-Year Tsy yields crossed back below 3.00%, which allowed GBP, EUR & CAD to move higher vs. USD, while the AUD & JPY operated around unchanged levels. JPY supply was once again noted around the Tokyo fix, although the move wasn't as large as yesterday's.