• The rouble have posted its biggest year-to-date gains in over 10 years, shrugging off increased geopolitical risks such as tougher sanctions against Russia
  • With Robert Mueller’s investigation is nearing its end, the rouble will clearly come under pressure in beginning of Q2, as sanctions over Russia’s alleged 2016 election meddling and other 100+ reasons are looming
  • The rouble climbed 6% against the dollar year-to-date, outpacing its global peers. Higher oil prices (+21% YTD), stronger demand for risky assets, as the Fed switched to a more dovish stance, and brighter prospects of the U.S. – China trade talks have fuelled the rebound
  • The first quarter has traditionally been a positive period for the rouble, given strong current account surplus, low external debt payments, substantial tax payments in March, particularly income tax payments that includeannual payments for 2018

March Outlook

  • The key tax payments in March that might have a material impact on the rouble could climb above 1.5 trln roubles, triggering a $7 bln FX-sell-off. Including insurance contributions , tax payments may rise above 2 trln roubles
  • March traditionally accounts for the bulk of tax payments, next biggest payments are expected in April and December
  • MinFin’s FX-buying in March may amount to 5–6% of the average daily FX-trading turnover and will have little impact on the rouble
  • By late March the rouble may technically strengthen to 65.1 due to substantial seasonal tax payments, assuming no new external pressure and stable oil prices

The key tax payments in March

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